UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Agrade and blackbeard is literally Andrew on two different accounts talking to himself 😭😭😭🤣🤣🤣💀💀💀💀 can't make this **** up

@Rah123 

youre still a fat hindi guy in a deli for me but still youve humbled yourself nice progress mate

You mean fat Hindi guy in a Deli who is always right about MMA 

I can't help that the powers of evil AKA Vegas Bookies plot against me and get me banned. If I was in their unfortunate position I would do the same. Lucky for you guys I escaped the ban and I am here to share my wisdom. 

E.g  Free tip for upcoming card - Jim Miller is free money 

You are welcome 

Theres this thing called life......GET ONE! 😏

Hawes vs. Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira, TKO, R1
Counter left KO

Arlovski vs. Cortes-Acosta
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, TKO, R2
If there was ever a heavy underdog to bet on, it would be Arlovski here. Tempted to do it for the award

Miller vs. Benítez
Jim Miller, TKO, R2
JIMMY MILLER

Simón vs. Bautista
Ricky Simón, DEC
Simon bounce back, Yadong is legit

Hawes vs. Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira, TKO, R1
Wouldn't be surprised if I only get the fighter wrong for this one!

Wilson vs. Silva
Jean Silva, TKO, R1
Don't like either of them lol but Wilson jheez

Nolan vs. Motta
Tom Nolan, TKO, R1
Motta lucky to leave with a No contest last time out doesn't inspire much faith won't be a similar result

Bunes vs. Van
Joshua Van, TKO, R3
RD2/3 Finish for Van, kid looks slick on the feet

**** WARNING****. Jean Silva-950 vs Westin Wilson +625: Under no circumstances should you be including Jean Silva in your parlays this week. We advised against adding him even when he was a -700 favorite now he is a -950 favorite.. Its not worth the risk at all.

For full breakdown checkout link in bio for substack 

Hawes vs. Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira
A at et

My parlay:
Van, Nolan , Mcghee 
$1000

My parlay: Van, Nolan, Basharat, Simon

Van and Nolan should have this in the bag pretty easily. Lapilus is good, but Basharat is great. Simon has more experience and has fought much tougher competition. He matches up very well stylistically with Bautista too and should be able to wrestle his way to a win.

  

1. Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
   • Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev
   • Method & Round:  Decision  
     • Confidence Percentage: 60%
     • Rationale: Considering the extended duration, Ankalaev’s calculated striking, defensive skills, and ability to integrate takedowns might lead to accumulating points over the rounds. Walker’s potential for an early finish remains a threat, but Ankalaev’s more consistent performance across five rounds is likely to result in a decision victory. Ankalaev's approach to managing the fight's pace and his tactical acumen are expected to be decisive in a main event setting.
2. Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
   • Prediction: Manel Kape
   • Method & Round:  TKO/KO, Round 2  
     • Confidence Percentage: 65%
     • Rationale: Kape's striking power and the lessons learned from their first fight could give him an edge, especially if he has improved his takedown defense. Nicolau's grappling is still a threat, but his durability issues and Kape's likely adjustments in strategy point towards a potential TKO/KO victory for Kape. Expect Kape to be more aggressive with his striking, looking to exploit any signs of Nicolau's weakened chin.
3. Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
   • Prediction: Jim Miller
   • Method & Round: Submission, Round 2 
     • Confidence Percentage: 55%
     • Rationale: While Benitez may have the striking advantage, Miller’s grappling and submission expertise could be the deciding factors. Expect Miller to look for opportunities to take the fight to the ground, where he can utilize his superior jiu-jitsu skills. Benitez’s striking and power keep him dangerous, especially early on, but Miller’s experience and ground game proficiency are likely to lead him to a submission victory.
4. Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
   • Prediction: Ricky Simon
   • Method & Round: Decision 
     • Confidence Percentage: 65%
     • Rationale: While Bautista may have the striking advantage, Simon’s wrestling and grappling prowess could be the deciding factors in this matchup. Expect Simon to employ his wrestling skills to take the fight to the ground, where he can control Bautista and mitigate his striking advantage. Bautista’s submission skills and striking keep him dangerous, but Simon’s pressure, control, and experience in grappling exchanges are likely to lead him to a decision victory.
5. Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
   • Prediction: Phil Hawes
   • Method & Round: TKO/KO, Round 2 
     • Confidence Percentage: 60%
     • Rationale: Hawes’ blend of striking precision and grappling ability might be key in this matchup. His reach advantage, coupled with better defensive metrics, could allow him to manage the stand-up exchanges effectively. Hawes might also utilize his wrestling to control Ferreira, especially given Ferreira's weaker takedown defense. Ferreira’s power and aggressiveness keep him dangerous, but Hawes' versatility and tactical approach are likely to lead to a TKO/KO victory, possibly exploiting Ferreira’s defense gaps in the second round.
6. Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
   • Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta
   • Method & Round: TKO/KO, Round 2 
     • Confidence Percentage: 70%
     • Rationale: Considering the potential decline in Arlovski's durability, Cortes-Acosta's aggressive and powerful striking style might pose a significant threat. Expect Cortes-Acosta to capitalize on his physical advantages and high striking volume to potentially secure a TKO/KO, especially if he can land clean, significant strikes. Arlovski’s experience and strategic fighting could still make him a tough opponent, but Cortes-Acosta’s youth, power, and activity level are likely to be decisive factors in this matchup.
7. Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons
   • Prediction: Preston Parsons
   • Method & Round: Submission, Round 3 
     • Confidence Percentage: 55%
     • Rationale: Parsons’ grappling and submission skills could be decisive in this matchup. Semelsberger’s striking is formidable, but Parsons’ ability to take the fight to the ground and his high submission rate suggest that he could control the fight on the mat. Expect Parsons to weather the early striking exchanges and eventually find an opportunity to secure a submission, particularly if he can exploit any gaps in Semelsberger's ground defense. Semelsberger’s power and striking make him a constant threat, but Parsons' grappling acumen and submission ability are likely to lead to a victory on the ground.
8. Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolanos
   • Prediction: Marcus McGhee
   • Method & Round: TKO/KO, Round 2 
     • Confidence Percentage: 60%
     • Rationale: McGhee's striking power and superior defense could give him the edge in a striking-focused bout. Expect McGhee to utilize his striking efficiency and defense to counter Bolanos’ aggressive approach and potentially find an opening for a knockout. Bolanos’ high output and striking capability make him dangerous, but McGhee's power and ability to absorb less damage are likely to lead him to a knockout victory.
9. Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
   • Prediction: Farid Basharat
   • Method & Round: Submission, Round 3 
     • Confidence Percentage: 60%
     • Rationale: Basharat’s combined striking and grappling abilities give him a significant advantage. Expect him to use his striking to set up takedowns and eventually work towards a submission. Lapilus’s experience and balanced skill set make him competitive, but Basharat’s aggressive grappling and submission skills, coupled with his striking precision, are likely to lead to a submission victory.
10. Jean Silva vs. Westin Wilson 
    •  Prediction: Jean Silva
    •  Method & Round: TKO/KO, Round 2 
      • Confidence Percentage: 65%
      • Rationale: Silva's high striking volume and accuracy are likely to play a significant role in this matchup. His ability to land strikes effectively, coupled with Wilson's weak striking defense, suggests Silva could dominate the stand-up exchanges. Wilson's submission threat is notable, but Silva’s takedown defense and striking prowess are expected to keep the fight standing, where he can leverage his advantage to potentially secure a TKO/KO victory.
11. Nikolas Motta vs. Tom Nolan 
    • Prediction: Tom Nolan
    • Method & Round: TKO/KO, Round 1 
      • Confidence Percentage: 70%
      • Rationale: Nolan’s striking volume and reach advantage are expected to be decisive in this matchup. His ability to land a high volume of strikes effectively, coupled with Motta’s tendency to absorb more strikes than he lands, suggests Nolan could dominate the stand-up exchanges. Motta's experience and knockout power present a threat, but Nolan's reach, striking volume, and finishing ability are likely to lead to an early TKO/KO victory.
12. Joshua Van vs. Felipe Bunes 
    • Prediction: Joshua Van
    • Method & Round: Decision 
      • Confidence Percentage: 60%
      • Rationale: Van's high striking volume and well-rounded skills could be key in this matchup. While Bunes’ experience and submission skills are noteworthy, the lack of detailed stats makes it hard to gauge his performance against a high-output fighter like Van. Expect Van to leverage his striking and takedown defense to maintain control, leading to a decision victory.

 

* Edited at 01.11.2024, 7:36 PM ET *

I really wanna see walker land a crazy knock out but I also don’t want to because he’s not a good matchup for Alex

Wilson vs. Silva
Jean Silva, TKO
-1000 ML for Silva is kind of ridiculous, but Wilson has shown many times he's a vulnerable fighter. Skill wise, I could see Wilson possibly having success in a scramble or something, but he's so fragile and unimposing. Not worth betting on this fight, but I expect Silva to finish Wilson in this one.

Nolan vs. Motta
Tom Nolan, TKO
Nolan is a huge lightweight and a finisher. Always good to be wary when picking a UFC newcomer, but Motta has not fared particularly well in the UFC; his only win was against washout Cameron Van Camp, otherwise he's been finished in all of his other appearances. There's not much to trust about Motta outside of a lucky punch, so I'm willing to get behind the less experienced guy in Nolan.

Bunes vs. Van
Joshua Van, DEC
Joshua Van is quickly becoming a legit prospect at 125, and could be the next big thing for the division. He's young, he's skilled and he's already overcome adversity against against solid opponents. Bunes will have a significant reach advantage on top of a dangerous submission game from his back. His striking is also pretty good, finishing his last opponent with strikes for the LFA title. Van is still only 22, so there's definitely room for improvement, but even at this early stage, he seems like a dynamic and well put together fighter. He should have what it takes to avoid the grappling, walk Bunes down and out strike him to a win.

Ankalaev vs. Walker II
Johnny Walker, TKO, R2
Walker improved quite a bit and I think he can catch Ankalaev with a KO. For Magomed would be very hard to take down a taller Walker and keep him down, so if Ankalaev wins , it would be by deceicion.

Arlovski vs. Cortes-Acosta
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, TKO, R2
I want Andrei to win , but Waldo is just too good... It will not go the distance..

Semelsberger vs. Parsons
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R1
will there be a new improved Parsons ? Doubt it

Everyone putting Van in their parlays is how Vegas makes money